NORTHEAST SNOW DEC9-10 2014

ATTENTION NEW ENGLAND REGION RESIDENTS!

This is my 1st ALERT message for the potential of a massive northern east coast "Winter" storm. Mets. and models are strongly suggesting a moderate to MAJOR storm system to evolve general as a late Monday thru Wedn. time frame. Analysis depicts a pre-Winter storm system capable of burying the northern tier of, or most of, interior NEW ENGLAND! It is time to pay attention to your local weather authorities and begin prep. now. I will have more detailed data tomorrow night, but I've scheduled most of this early week for hunting in Kansas. Note the location of this fully matured storm system in the image here:

DAY 2 ALERT - Well folks, here's the general Idea I tend to agree with after reviewing recent data and especially scrutinizing the anticipated TEMPERATURE data. This will become a strong, high magnitude storm as it gets to it's phase point, but easterly winds will bring in plenty of moderating temps to keep storm totals low in most cases...except for the possibilities of central NY and on into the northern tier regions of NEW ENGLAND..... higher terrain regions that typically receive the snow as well.

Although temps are dropping into the teens or colder in much of NEW ENGLAND tonight, it will not be the same over the next few nights. Southeast and eastern winds will bring the moderating temps ahead of the incoming precip. An oceanic frontal boundary will buckle and surge NW ahead of the approaching Low thru the Great Lakes region. That oceanic moisture will merge with a phasing low off the coast of NJ by Wedn. Lingering precip may last right thru the rest of the week in much of NEW ENGLAND as well.

This "forecast map" tends to show the general idea that I agree with now for overall idea. Some areas will see snow and rain, or snow after rain, etc etc. No specifics really in detailed "snow totals" due to off and on varying temps that will provide a mix of winter precip. Some mountainous regions may be lucky enough to sustain cold enough temps in the Catskills and Adirondacks for a decent snow event. But otherwise, this seems to be a slop storm for the majority of the regions noted:

(Map @ Robert Venditti)

DAY 3 FINAL ALERT - Alright folks...

I'm sure by now you've seen plenty of data thrown around about the coming massive storm for the Northeast this week. And, gathering the data, it's pretty obvious that this storm will be a "multi-type precip event" for most; making this one of the most difficult to "forecast" in accuracies of "storm totals". Don't slam the forecasters in their attempts to analyze such a multi-faceted storm complex as it evolves off the Northeastern USA coast....

CENTRAL and (possibly) NORTHERN NEW YORK GETS SLAMMED:

The 2 data images that I post seem to be in agreement with each other, and myself as well, and is why I chose this data to present here. This storm system will bring plenty of moisture capable of flooding events AND potentially FEET of snow in isolated locations. One of those locations could very well be the western Catskills of NEW YORK..... as well as possibly the backbone mtns of VT, and a large portion of Maine (although Maine will be widespread, it may not reach the 20" marks of previously mentioned locations).

The 1st image shows potential snow totals possible. The 2nd image shows what's expected in form of how this storm system may evolve by tomorrow (Tuesday) evening. As you can see, there is plenty of QPF (liquid availability) to produce the flooding and the moderately heavy storm snow totals. "Where" and "how much" is nearly impossible to scrutinize to detail. Take into consideration the temps involved and it seems that most will see mixed precip and a helluva mess overall. This will be one of those storms where the higher terrain areas get slammed, and the valleys below wonder "where's the snow"..........

I hope this has helped give a little insight to the pending storm coming your way. Prepare now, ahead of the storm, so you're not stuck in it somewhere. ~ JP ~

EDIT - STORM RESULTS NEXT >>