MARCH 3 - 2019

A Valentines Long-Range Prediction

It was around Valentines Day of our rather cold 2019 Winter season. A continuous dominating cold pattern for the Northeast and Great Lakes was on-going, and although there weren't too many "major" snow events, and NO classic coastal Nor'Easters, people were already getting weary of the cold and windy Winter. Here in OKLahoma, we had received a shot or 2 of cold air, but were more of a roller coaster ride in temps overall.

Now I generally do not attempt to "forecast" beyond about 72 hrs for any kind of concrete accuracy. But I DO like to relay the NWS's information and data as it is showing, if it is a more consistent sequence. I will then project to the public a "likelihood" of a certain type of event coming. Many times it does not come to fruition, or alters different ways. But, sometimes it is very keen and tends to give some people a little bit of an advantage in preparing for it. I'm personally the type that tends to be happier being prepared for something that doesn't happen, versus dealing with something that does and I somehow never expected it.

This approach does also contribute to the way I keep others aware, if possible.......

So after seeing some repeated data sequencing into what appeared to be a pretty solid concept and likelihood, I took a bold step and announced about 12 days ahead that "March is going to come in like a Lion, on many facets." I literally meant the final couple days of FEB going into the 1st few days of March, at that time.... not necessarily the strike of midnight on March, forwards..... I was immediately disheartened by being berated, publicly, by someone that I highly respected, but had only known me for about a month of my 50 years of Life. My general and broad statement had somehow been turned into/perceived of "my hype and Armageddon" status to the public.

But anyone that knows me, and especially for the 12 years online now, or for 35 years of weather observations, knows this statement is almost completely the opposite of me..... But you know the way social medias are......

It looked like a big pattern change was coming and a likely one-two punch of major systems. The NW/SE flow was about to take a huge swing to the SW. Data was showing a major system coming into the west coast and dipping deep into the SW, then heading for the Great Lakes as a near-hurricane force Low dropping into the lower 970sMb up in SE Canada. Followed by a big 1050ish High dropping SE towards our Gulf. This I figured might induce a Gulf Low to form and become our 1st east coast monster that was long overdue. This could also prompt severe weather as the Low developed and headed NE.

So with all these factors and a few more coming together, I made my decision to announce my statement and alert people to prepare. By the end of the 1st week, a massive record-breaking 3 foot snowstorm buried our SW, even with some desert snow....and then Blizzard-warned across our Plains while turning into a wind with gusts of 60-80mph in the Greater Great Lakes regions, SE Canada, and parts of the Northeast. It also spawned a minor severe event in the Dixie regions that I Tracked for the funofit across some of Mississippi. 

Then all eyes and word of the coming COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM CANADA began making headlines......

(The 2 images below is me watching a tornado-warned cell and the velocity scans that I tracked in central MS that was heading for Columbus, MS)

SNOW TOTALS of ARIZONA

SOME PLACES RECEIVED UP TO 40"

NEXT CAME THE FRIGHTENING DATA EXPECTATIONS OF THE COLD AIR COMING.........

The echoes of my Valentines phrase started to come back around now as we began to see it all come together. The last image above prior to this paragraph shows what was expected for wind chill factors continentally. It was a dangerous March air mass.

There still was  a chance for an east coast storm if this cold intrusion barreled south just right. But the evolution of data changed a little and began to show a system coming across the CONUS instead of up from the Gulf. This would really enhance the cold air with winds in the Plains, and then likely spawn a severe weather event right after March makes it's presence. The introduction of this western Low brought the west coast cold air deep south again, then blasted through our southern Plains as I Tracked some snow for my news team, and took aim for fanning out the colder air into the SE USA regions. The prior systems had already pushed our east coast temps back a bit, and seemed like it would allow the Low to ride more ENE than NE. 

Around the 1st we began more boldly alerting of the coming severe weather in MS/AL/FLA Panhandle. On March 3, the image I used as the header here unfolded with up to 40+ tornado reports and nearly 25 fatalities in the regions outlined here already. Some of the awareness was a solid 4 days or so, but in that region, the trees and the typically very HP mesos that roll through there are exceptionally hard to see and to track. It was only the 3rd day of our "unofficial severe season" and we more than doubled all of last year's fatality totals....

The following image is a NWS radar shot of around the height of the tornado outbreak around 4pm ish.

The "east coast system" turned out to be a southern New England snowstorm up to a foot+ in some areas west of Boston, and a few inches regionally otherwise.... but still not a Nor'Easter. Even NYC got in on the action this time. But the death toll and destruction left behind in the SE near the GA/AL state line was the more concerning and horrible news. This event is prompting many more topics and conversations now, as we begin our 2019 severe weather season......

The image below is not mine and is a screen shot of a Livestream at Ground 0 near Baeuregard , AL

In concluding here, this time my crystal ball could see out almost 2 weeks almost in detail. Overall a massive multi-foot snowstorm, then a blizzard, then a hurricane-strength wind event, and minor severe weather event......followed by another snow event in our southern Plains, a horrible tornado outbreak, and then a moderate east coast storm blanketing southern New England.

How's that not support the ole' saying that I expressed back on Valentines of "March is going to come in like a Lion on many facets"?.....

I'm taking an A- as a grade for this long-range forecast attempt, and steamrolling the beratement I received for the supposed  "hype" from my statement 2 weeks prior.

Looking forwards now on this March 4th late night, I see  our next system coming this wknd. Looks like by Saturday a very strong Low is going to eject out of the Rockies and break the blizzard criteria threshold, as it heads up into the western Great Lakes. Will it also bring some brief severe to the SE southern Plains, or maybe the next one coming the following Tuesday? I don't think at this time, that it will be "as intense" as our past wknd events.... due to even the basic fact that this Low is projected to head NE, instead of east, or even ESE like the previous one did at times. This generally keeps the pressure gradient further away from the moist return of Gulf air masses in the South. However, this does not of course rule out tornadic activity, especially in the Mid-West this wknd.