March 13-14 '23 New England Elevation Snowmageddon

"IT WAS THE ONE I REFERENCED MORE SPECIFICALLY, WHEN ANALYZING LONG-TERM DATA BACK IN LATE FEB, FOR ME SAYING 'HELLO EASTERN NY, GET YOUR SHOVELS AND SNOWMOBILES OUT, YOU'RE GOING TO GET 'FEET OF SNOW' SOON, THROUGHOUT MARCH!"

YES, IT SEEMED A HARD PILL TO SWALLOW FOR MANY,

BACK IN LATE FEB, HEARING ABOUT MAJOR 'SNOW' COMING TO THE NORTHEAST, IN MARCH! AFTER ALL AND  KINDA HARD TO BLAME THE FOLKS REGIONALLY ACTUALLY, WITH SUCH A 'SPRING'-TYPE OF WINTER PRIOR, AT THAT TIME. 

ALTHOUGH THERE WERE MANY STORMS SYSTEMS PARADING ACROSS THE USA, IT WAS MORE APPARENT THAT THE CULMINATION OF THESE MIGRATING SYSTEMS, WAS ABOUT TO JOIN BOTH BRANCHES OF JET STREAMS AND COMBINE THE ENERGY PHASING RIGHT OFF THE EAST COAST IN VERY TEXTBOOK POSITION FOR INTENSE NORTHEAST SNOW EVENT!

THIS ONE HAD BOMBOGENESIS POTENTIAL, AND JUST THE RIGHT TRACKING POTENTIAL TO DUMP

'FEET OF SNOW'

 .....IN IT'S SINGLE EVENT, MUCH LESS WHAT HAD FALLEN IN MARCH ALREADY, AND ADD THE REST OF THE MONTH NEXT TOO! AS ALWAYS, THE ENDLESS COMPLEXITIES AND VARIABLES OF FIGURING OUT THE TRACKING OF SUCH ATMOSPHERIC MAGNITUDE, HAS SO MANY CRUCIAL FACTORS ITSELF, AND THEN ADD THE FREEZE/FROZEN PRECIP TRANSITIONS AND EVOLUTIONS AS WELL?.... ALL MAKES IT INSANELY SILLY TO THINK ONE CAN GET IT ALL TOGETHER LIKE THAT, AND, OVER A RANGE OF ABOUT 100,000 SQ MILES REGIONALLY. BUT WITH DILIGENCE AND DEPTH, WE CAN GET A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT'S LIKELY TO GENERALLY HAPPEN OUT TO ABOUT 72 HRS MOST OF THE TIME. THEREFORE OF COURSE, IT WAS A BIT OF A STRETCH TO MAKE THE STATEMENT I MADE. BUT WHILE VIEWING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE WAS ENOUGH COLD-AIR BLOCKING TO THE NORTH AND A UNIQUE POTENTIAL TO SEND A COUPLE UP THE COAST INSTEAD OF THE MILLER-B-TYPE SEQUENCING. IN THIS CASE, WE LITERALLY COMBINE BOTH, BY MERGING JETSTREAMS TOGETHER.

THE FOLLOWING IMAGE SHOWS A BIT OF THAT I OUTLINED IN ARROWS ETC....

AS YOU SEE IN THE NEXT IMAGE HERE ABOVE, THE PHASING OF THESE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY, AND MATURING INTO A POTENTIAL SERIOUS NOR'EASTER....

SO NEXT WE START THINKING ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THIS KIND OF TRACKING, IN CASE IT LITERALLY COMES TO FRUITION, RIGHT? WHAT ARE SOME KEY FACTORS TO LOOK FOR THEN NEXT?

WELL, FOR ONE, WE NEED TO CONSIDER THE POWER AND POSITIONING OF ANY KIND OF EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH CENTER, PREFERABLY ABOUT DUE NORTH OF NY STATE. WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER NOT ONLY THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WEST ATLANTIC LOW, BUT ALSO THE DYNAMICS AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE INCOMING NORTHERN/GREAT LAKES LOW SLIDING ESE WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THE NEXT IS LIKELY TIMING. THEN, WE CONSIDERING ALMOST A RETROGRADING OCEANIC LOW MIGRATING NEARLY NW-WARDS, AND CONVEYOR-BELTING THE PRECIP INLAND! THE MERGING OF THESE 2 CENTERS, INSTEAD OF TRAILING, MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE TOO. THERE'S MANY MANY MORE FACTORS, BUT THESE WILL STAND OUT IN THE ANALYSIS.

THEN IN THE FOLLOWING IMAGE, WE START TO SEE THAT MERGER, AND POTENTIAL STRONG NOR'EASTER SEQUENCE DEVELOPING.... AT TIMES EVEN APPEARING AS A 'DOUBLE-BARREL' LOW COMPLETELY MERGING INTO ONE.  BUT THERE'S STILL TOO MUCH VAST ATLANTIC WARM OCEAN AIR TO JUST BLAST THROUGH AT ONCE. INSTEAD, IT'LL RETROGRADE, STALL, WALLOW AND SPIN ITSELF OUT A BIT, BEFORE DRIFTING ENE AWAY FROM IT'S SHOW IN THE NORTHEAST....

CONSIDERING THIS SEQUENCE, WE START TO SEE THERE WILL BECOME A 'FULCRUM/PIVOTAL' POINT REGION FOR CONCENTRATED SNOW FAR INLAND, THROUGH THIS EVENT. THIS ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE 'STORM TOTALS' FACTORS FOR LIKELY BEING IN THE 2-3FT RANGE; ESPECIALLY IF IT'S A SLOW TRACK TOO. 

BUT RIGHT ABOUT HERE WE HAVE TO CONSIDER AN UNIQUE AND LIKELY OVERLOOKED FACTOR TO THIS SYSTEM.

LET'S CONSIDER THE LOW FROM THE NORTH 1ST. IT'S CYCLONIC FLOW, AS IT MIGRATES SE-WARDS, COMING IN FROM THE WEST, WILL CONTINUOUSLY BRING A SE OR SOUTHERN FETCH OF AIR/WIND AHEAD OF IT. WHICH MEANS, FOR A PROLONGED TIME, EARLY IN THIS SEQUENCE AND BEFORE THE COASTAL MERG., THIS WILL BRING A LONGER PERIOD OF WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NYC ETC.

SO CONSIDERING THIS, THAT WOULD MEAN A SE STEADY WIND IN SOUTHERN HUDSON VALLEY, NYC, LI, CT, MASS, RI ETC. ALSO WOULD CERTAINLY PROLONG RAIN IN THE LOWEST ELEVATION TOPOGRAPHY OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION TOO (CONSIDERING THE HUDSON VALLEY IN EASTERN NY TOO). ON THE FLIP SIDE THOUGH, THERE'S PLENTY OF TYPICALLY COLD AIR AROUND, WITHOUT ALSO ADDING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN COLD LOW'S REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS KINDA TRANSLATES INTO MORE AGREEMENT THAT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE GOING TO GET A CHANCE TO REALLY MAINTAIN  COLDER AIR TEMPS LONGER, IF NOT ALTOGETHER. BUT THE KEY POINT HERE AGAIN, WE HAVE TO CONSIDER JUST HOW THE LAKES CLIPPER NUDGES THE ADVECTION PROCESS, AND TO WHAT EXTENT? TYPICALLY IT GENERALLY BRINGS SOUTHERN CT AIR INTO ALBANY, AND ENHANCED VIA THE HV WHICH IS DAMN-NEARLY SEA LEVEL WITH IT'S RIVER TIDES.

BUT THE FASTER THAT LOW GETS TO REDEVELOP,

OR EVEN BEGIN TO, OFF THE COAST,

THE FASTER THE TEMPS DROP AROUND THE SYSTEM TO MAKE IT'S NOR'EASTER MUCH MORE LIKELY! 

NOW WE BEGIN TO CONCLUDE WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A RAIN AND MIX EVENT IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS, AND SOME PRETTY SERIOUS SNOW IN THE MTNS....AND, THE 2ND 1/2 OF THE EVENT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ALL SNOW! HERE IS WHERE WE MAY ALSO BEGIN TO CONSIDER

'FEET OF SNOW'

POSSIBLE. AND THEN CONSIDER THE LOW TRACKING LIKE A BEMBLEBEE HITTING FLOWERS, WALLOWING ALONG, INSTEAD OF JUST BEE-LINING IT OUTTA HERE. WILL IT STAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR CONTINENT TO CONTINUE SNOWING INLAND? JUST HOW FAR? AND 100 MORE QUESTIONS TOO. BUT.... LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT IT NEXT....

THE FOLLOWING IMAGE SHOWS THE LIKELY MATURED NOR'EASTER NOW. BUT WE NEED TO CONSIDER THE EVOLUTION OF A 'NOR-LUND TROUGHING' TO CONCENTRATE ON JUST WHO GETS THE INTENSE BOUNDARIES THAT SETUP, ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE OR STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINTER SYSTEMS. THEY BASICALLY OUTLINE THE CONCENTRATED POST-OCCLUSION AREA OF THE SEQUENCE. THESE AREAS CONCENTRATE BANDS OF SNOW INTO VERY HEAVY TOTALS. 

SEEING THIS IN DATA SHOWING UP REPEATDLY SEEMED PRETTY TEXTBOOK- SIGNATURED FOR A CONSIDERABLE NOR'EASTER COMING....

SO NEXT WE TURN TO FORECASTING AND ALERTING THE PUBLIC OF WHAT SEEMED TO BE COMING! 

RAIN EARLY, THEN HEAVY WET DAMAGING SNOW ON SOUTHERN REGIONS, AND LIKELY NEAR-BLIZZARD INLAND!

IT WAS OBVIOUS THIS KIND OF TROUGHING WOULD FUNNEL THAT WARMER OCEANIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE, BUT HOW FAR(?)..... AND AHEAD OF THE 2 MERGING LOWS. AND LOOKING FURTHER NORTH, WITH NO APPARENT DOMINATING EAST CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURES, IT SURE ALSO HAD THE CHANCE TO REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON SOME SNOW-LOVERS.

BUT, IF YOU LIVE IN THIS REGION SPECIFICALLY, OR HAVE SOME HISTORY THERE, YOU KNOW HOW UNIQUE THE HUDSON VALLEY HAS A WAY OF DOING EXACTLY THAT, VERY OFTEN. SO I RAN WITH RAIN STARTING IN MID-DAY (NO LESS, ALSO ENHANCING WARMER PRECIP) ACROSS SE NY. BUT I MENTIONED PLACES LIKE HUNTER MTN MIGHT SEE A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE HUDSON RIVER AREAS EVEN SEE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE NORTHEAST IS INCREDIBLY TOUGH AND CHALLENGING FOR FORECASTING FROZEN PRECIP VARIATION STORMS - EVEN FURTHER WITH THE INTENSITY OF DEVELOPING NOR'EASTERS. 

THEN I REFERENCED IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALL REGIONAL SNOW BY EVENING OR 8-9PM, AND THAT IT MIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW/WIND FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AFTER THAT....

"FEET OF SNOW"

SO IN SUMMARY, I TOLD MY PEOPLE A FOOT IN THE NORTHERN HV AND 2FT OR MORE IN SURROUNDING MTNS; FIGURING MAYBE 30" MAXED SOMEWHERE ON A PEAK. BUT IT WOULD BE DRASTIC IN ELEVATION GRADIENTS - ALSO KNOWN AS 'ELEVATION-SNOW STORMS' LOCALLY TO THE REGION THERE IN THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER SOUTH WOULD BE A MIX AND UNSURE HOW IT ALL PANS-OUT WITH SO MUCH PRECIP AVAILABLE, YET RAIN MIX AND SNOW OVERALL....FIGURED 3-6 ALONG THE RIVER DOWN TO MAYBE ULSTER COUNTY, AND 6-12+ AS SOON AS YOU GO INLAND.....

THEN I FOUND THIS IMAGE AND SEEMED VERY SIMILAR OVERALL. ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT, I THOUGHT MORE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND LESS FOR LOWER HV. BUT IT SEEMED LIKE EVEN NYC MIGHT GET AT LEAST SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM; ESPECIALLY IF IT STALLS OR 'FULCRUMS' IN THE BAY OF MAINE. 

IN EITHER CASE THOUGH, IT WAS APPARENT A SIZEABLE 1-3FT SNOW TOTAL FOR ALMOST EVERYONE REGIONALLY OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, NY, AND MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WHERE IT GETS TO PIVOT INTO THE NORTHEAST. 

WHAT HAPPENED?

THE HEAVY SE WINDS AND DELUGE RAINS CAME BARRELLING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/NY 1ST. SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE UPPER MTNS REGIONALLY, AS THE CLIPPER LOW WAS TRANSITIONING OVER TO CAPE COD SOUTH. MATTER FACT, IT RAINED SO LONG IN SE NY AND THE SOUTHERN HV, INTO THE NORTHERN HV, THAT SOME WERE STARTING TO GIVE-UP ON SEEING SIZEABLE SNOW ETC.

HERE'S THE PRESSURE DATA AROUND THAT TIME SHOWING THE TRANSITIONING LOW

YOU CAN SEE THE MIXING STARTING AROUND THE NOTED TIME ON THE IMAGE AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE AROUND 9-10P

BUT BY MIDNITE IT WAS CRANKING WIDESPREAD EVERYWHERE!

OVERNITE THE NOR'EASTER CRANKED INTENSE SNOWS THROUGHOUT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THEN YOU CAN SEE IN THIS NEXT PRESSURE GRADIENT IMAGE HOW THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PIVOTED/'FULCRUMED', CONVEYOR BELTING THE SNOW INTO THE HEART OF THE REGION. 10S OF 1000S OF POWER OUTAGES AND EVERYONE WAS DEALING WITH IT. 

THE NEXT IMAGE SHOWING IT STILL SNOWING INTO THE LATE NEXT DAY TOO.

AND THEN OF COURSE THERE WERE 1000S OF SNOW-PIX IN SOCIAL MEDIAS, BOTH OF JUBILEE AND FRUSTRATION AT SAME TIME, LOL! THIS RANDOM PIC CHOSEN WAS SENT TO MY WEATHER PAGE IN FB FROM UP IN ALBANY REGION.

PRETTY AMAZING STORM OVERALL, FOR THE BOOKS! IT WAS AN ATTRIBUTOR TO THE 'FEET OF SNOW' FOR MARCH, STATED IN FEB WAS COMING, AND ALSO, THE NEXT IMAGE SHOWING THE TOTALS....

I WRAP THIS BLOG UP WITH THE LAST IMAGE SHOWING SOME DATA ON THE COLD EXPECTED FOR MID-LATE MARCH, THIS WKND, AND THE 'COLD MARCH' I POSTED ABOUT IN SOCIAL MEDIAS TOO. I SAID SOMETHING LIKE 'JUST WHEN SPRING GETS HERE, IT'S OVER...AND JUST AS WINTER ENDS, HERE COMES WINTER'.....