ROUND 2?

Our next system is getting ready to influence our CONUS this week now.....

Last wknd I talked about the common "one-two punch" that often develop as cold polar air tries to descend into continental USA. Many times the sequence begins with one midland storm ripping through, carving a path for the cold air intrusion; which in turn often triggers a northern Gulf Low to develop and then ride the east coast as a bombing Nor'Easter. But that's not the case this time....

(The data within this analogy WILL change a bit as time progresses, and is only a brief concept of what is being seen as of now) Observing the top header image of this Blog, you can easily see the synoptic boundary that has merely been somewhat peeled back eastwards, off the continent, and onward into the northwestern Atlantic a bit. This was the continental Low that developed as a massive cyclone out in the northern Pacific, and came ashore to cross and influence most of the USA. This was not in any way a Nor'Easter, unless you simply would like to describe the brief northeastern winds associated with it's approach to the coast. Yet it still managed a solid 2 feet of snow in some locations of NW New England.

But now, if we take a look at some modeling data in the next image below, let's take a note of that pretty considerable High that's drifting SE across the middle of the continent (see image #1 below), and soon settling into the "Bermuda High" region by mid-week. That High will be a steering influence for the approaching next storm system. 

This is a little more complex sequence. There will be numerous Lows riding in Canada, eastwards, along that cold air mass's southern regions. Our next incoming Low will not dig into the South like the recent one did. Instead this Low is expected to redevelop as far north as nearly Montana, (see image #2 below) dip southeast for a bit, and then get influenced by the aforementioned Bermuda High air mass. In turn, this will reroute the low towards the Great Lakes.... 

Instead of the normal "arctic plunge" sequence, this one spells a warmer air advection northeastwards towards New England, ahead of the next storm system, generally by Wednesday night. Projecting beyond the standard 72hr window now, we see numerous Lows in the eastern Greater USA region. What do they do interacting with each other is the key to how this all plays out by the 24th....

Confidence reduces greatly at this point as to what will happen. It does appear that maybe a fast-moving "Carolina Low" will develop west side of the Bermuda High region, and skirt the coast northeastwards; kinda like a mini-Nor'Easter. But if this does occur, I don't see enough dynamics at this time, to consider a bombing cyclogenesis along the east coast. This does however, bring some more snow to New England. (Note the final image of this Blog, below) Remember about 10 days ago, when there wasn't much snow in the region, I posted about "prepare now for feet of snow coming to New England the 2nd 1/2 of January"?

After this it appears that a "mild" version of the Polar Express will relentlessly dominate from Montana to Maine, and south to about Missouri, for many days. It looks like a train of cold 1045 highs ascending from Canada's NW and Alaska. I tried to prepare you......